Natural Gas will meet 25% of global energy demand by 2035 according to the IEA, who say that the fuel is abundant and clean, at least compared to other fossil fuels. Sadly the scenario underpinning this prediction will do little to help stem carbon dioxide emissions. Here are the main features of the scenario:
- global primary gas demand increases from 3.3 trillion cubic metres per year (tcm) today to 5.1 tcm in 2035.
- Supply increases accordingly, requiring cumulative infrastructure investment over the period of 8 trillion dollars (around 4$ per additional cubic meter per annum of supply capacity)
- Shale gas, tight gas and coalbed methane become an increasingly significant part of the supply mix post 2015
- gas trading volumes double, split evenly between pipeline and liquid natural gas
- greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and we fail to keep global temperature rises within the 2 degrees Celsius target limit
The full report is in the public domain and can be read or downloaded for free at http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2011/WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pdf .