Graham – Page 27 – Fine Energy

International Energy Agency heralds ‘Golden Age of Gas’

Natural Gas will meet 25% of global energy demand by 2035 according to the IEA, who say that the fuel is abundant and clean, at least compared to other fossil fuels. Sadly the scenario underpinning this prediction will do little to help stem carbon dioxide emissions. Here are the main features of the scenario:

global primary gas demand increases from 3.3 trillion cubic metres per year (tcm) today to 5.1 tcm in 2035.
Supply increases accordingly, requiring cumulative infrastructure investment over the period of 8 trillion dollars (around 4$ per additional cubic meter per annum of supply capacity)
Shale gas, tight gas and coalbed methane become an increasingly significant part of the supply mix post 2015
gas trading volumes double, split evenly between pipeline and liquid natural gas
greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and we fail to keep global temperature rises within the 2 degrees Celsius target limit

The full report is in the public domain and can be read or downloaded for free at http://www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2011/WEO2011_GoldenAgeofGasReport.pdf .

East Midlands Airport installs two wind turbines as part of its drive to go carbon-neutral by 2012

This project has been long in the gestation. East Midlands Airport were granted planning consent in 2008 and have taken advice extensively before going ahead with the work of installing two wind turbines, which can now be seen on site. Read about the planning stage of the project. See images.

Crop yields already being reduced by climate change

Climate change, not natural variations in weather, has reduced crop yields globally leading to food price increases, according to a summary in the UK’s Guardian newspaper today of a research study in Science magazine. Fine Energy does not yet have the Science article but will provide more on this story once we have read it and absorbed it. Meanwhile we welcome thoughts from arable and livestock farmers on this topic. It seems to us to combine short-term good news for farmers (food prices being driven up) with a worrying prognosis for the longer-term viability of conventional agriculture if yields continue to drop. We note however, in advance of seeing the full article, that a 20% increase in food prices over the 28-year period represents a low annual growth rate.

Flexible low-cost paint-on solar panel developed

Low-cost paint-on solar panels suitable for use on rooftops are being developed by Prof Paul Dastoor at the University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia. In addition to the low cost, Paul cites flexibility as a benefit. From our experience of sites where otherwise promising rooftops are overlooked by residents who would object to titled panels on their roof, we would add as a planning benefit the capability to paint on to a low-profile support structure. Find out more at www.newcastle.edu.au/research-centre/COE

Feed-in tariffs (FITs) review announced

FITs will remain unchanged until April 2012 “unless the review reveals a need for greater urgency” UK Energy Secretary Chris Huhne announced on 7 February. This comprehensive review of the feed-in tariffs is designed to provide investment certainty, but the announcement is unfortunately likely to have the opposite effect, introducing as it does the possibility that tariffs may be changed before March 2012.

DECC’s announcement promises that the Government will not act retrospectively and that “installations which are already accredited for FITs at the time will not be affected.” Because of the lead time between putting cash into a project and getting it commissioned, this assurance is not enough. With the possibility of tariff changes taking effect before April 2012, investors could now find themselves lumbered with projects that would have been profitable if they were to have been successfully commissioned by March 2012, but which are now unable to recover their costs within realistic timescales.

To provide certainty for investors, the review now needs to take place quickly and to set a clear period of validity for tariffs going forward, without any get-out clauses. The focus appears to be on solar photovoltaic schemes of greater than 50kWp capacity, so investors in wind and smaller solar projects should not be as concerned as those looking to invest in large solar farms.

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